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Who will win Democrats' nomination for NYC Mayor on 24 June 2025?
Who will win Democrats' nomination for NYC Mayor on 24 June 2025?

Andrew Cuomo 79.8%

Zohran Mamdani 19.2%

Someone else 1%

Liquidity:

  • Andrew Cuomo : 78k ANDREW_CUOM / 81k sDAI
  • Zohran Mamdani: 71k ZOHRAN_MAMD / 21k sDAI
  • Someone else: 77k SOMEONE_ELS / 593.92 sDAI

$202k

Categorical

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Will legislation become law that eliminates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2025?
Will legislation become law that eliminates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2025?

Yes 16.4%

No 83.6%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 67k YES / 4k sDAI
  • No: 78k NO / 72k sDAI

$171k

Categorical

Reward: 65k SEER/day

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How many seats will [party name] win in Japan's 2025 House of Council elections? [Seats]
How many seats will [party name] win in Japan's 2025 House of Council elections? [Seats]

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 34.7%

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) 19.9%

Democratic Party For the People (DPP) 14.3%

Liquidity:

  • Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 50k LIBERAL_DEM / 12k sDAI
  • Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP): 50k CONSTITUTIO / 7k sDAI
  • Democratic Party For the People (DPP): 50k DEMOCRATIC_ / 5k sDAI
  • Japan Innovation Party (Ishin): 50k JAPAN_INNOV / 2k sDAI
  • Komeito (Komei): 50k KOMEITO_KOM / 3k sDAI
  • Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa): 50k REIWA_SHINS / 1k sDAI
  • Japanese Communist Party (JCPY): 50k JAPANESE_CO / 933.15 sDAI
  • Sanseitō (DIY): 50k SANSEIT_DIY / 295.88 sDAI
  • Conservative Party of Japan (CPJ): 50k CONSERVATIV / 363.93 sDAI
  • Social Democratic Party (SDP): 50k SOCIAL_DEMO / 86.88 sDAI
  • Others: 50k OTHERS / 548.38 sDAI
  • Invalid: 1.00 SER-INVALID / 2.18 sDAI

$91k

Multi Scalar

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Tesla (TSLA) stock price at start of 1 September 2025? [USD]
Tesla (TSLA) stock price at start of 1 September 2025? [USD]

Estimate

300.8

100

500

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 25k EM_Y_TSLA_D / 22k ELON_CEO_Y
  • UP: 25k EM_Y_TSLA_U / 22k ELON_CEO_Y

$64k

Scalar

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The HICP inflation rate in the European Union for 2025? [Annual average rate of change, 1 decimal]
The HICP inflation rate in the European Union for 2025? [Annual average rate of change, 1 decimal]

Estimate

2.504

0

4

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 12k EU_INFL25DO / 6k sDAI
  • UP: 12k EU_INFL25UP / 27k sDAI

$51k

Scalar

Reward: 16k SEER/day

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What will be the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for banks in 2026? [index]
What will be the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for banks in 2026? [index]

Estimate

80.6

60

100

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 16k CFPBN_ASCID / 16k NO
  • UP: 14k CFPBN_ASCIU / 16k NO

$44k

Scalar

Conditional Market:

Conditional on "Will legislation become law that eliminates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2025?" being "No"

Reward: 32k SEER/day

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the US by the end of 2025?
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the US by the end of 2025?

Yes 16%

No 82.4%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 16k H5US10K_YES / 2k sDAI
  • No: 16k H5US10K_NO / 15k sDAI

$36k

Categorical

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Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate in the next French presidential election?
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate in the next French presidential election?

Yes 32.9%

No 66.4%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 3k LEPEN_NRYES / 1k sDAI
  • No: 4k LEPEN_NRNO / 10k sDAI

$16k

Categorical

Reward: 65k SEER/day

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What will be the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for banks in 2026? [index]
What will be the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for banks in 2026? [index]

Estimate

79.36

60

100

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 40k CFPBY_ASCID / 13k YES
  • UP: 41k CFPBY_ASCIU / 12k YES

$12k

Scalar

Conditional Market:

Conditional on "Will legislation become law that eliminates the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2025?" being "Yes"

Reward: 32k SEER/day

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Tesla (TSLA) stock price at start of 1 September 2025? [USD]
Tesla (TSLA) stock price at start of 1 September 2025? [USD]

Estimate

300

100

500

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 25k EM_N_TSLA_D / 22k ELON_CEO_N
  • UP: 25k EM_N_TSLA_U / 22k ELON_CEO_N

$8k

Scalar

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Will the National Rally’s candidate win the next French presidential election?
Will the National Rally’s candidate win the next French presidential election?

Yes 14.7%

No 84.7%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 4k LPY_NR_YES / 707.73 LEPEN_NRYES
  • No: 4k LPY_NR_NO / 3k LEPEN_NRYES

$3k

Categorical

Conditional Market:

Conditional on "Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate in the next French presidential election?" being "Yes"

Reward: 65k SEER/day

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Will the National Rally’s candidate win the next French presidential election?
Will the National Rally’s candidate win the next French presidential election?

Yes 26%

No 74%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 4k LPN_NR_YES / 1k LEPEN_NRNO
  • No: 4k LPN_NR_NO / 2k LEPEN_NRNO

$3k

Categorical

Conditional Market:

Conditional on "Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate in the next French presidential election?" being "No"

Reward: 65k SEER/day

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How many seats in France’s National Assembly will [party bloc] win in the next French legislative election?
How many seats in France’s National Assembly will [party bloc] win in the next French legislative election?

Far Right (RN, UXD, REC, DSV, EXD, ...) 25%

Right (LR, DVD, …) 7.7%

Centre (ENS, REN, MDM, HOR, UDI, DVC, …) 28.9%

Liquidity:

  • Far Right (RN, UXD, REC, DSV, EXD, ...): 1k FRNAFARRIGH / 189.87 sDAI
  • Right (LR, DVD, …): 1k FRNARIGHT / 51.14 sDAI
  • Centre (ENS, REN, MDM, HOR, UDI, DVC, …): 1k FRNACENTRE / 281.49 sDAI
  • Left (UG, LFI, SOC, COM, VEC, RDG, DVG, EXG, …): 1k FRNALEFT / 241.63 sDAI
  • Other (REG, ECO, DIV, …): 1k FRNAOTHER / 41.62 sDAI

$2k

Multi Scalar

Reward: 65k SEER/day

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Will Vitalik Buterin migrate his Circles v1 account to v2 end of June 21th?
Will Vitalik Buterin migrate his Circles v1 account to v2 end of June 21th?

Yes 31%

No 69%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 1k YES / 330.17 sDAI
  • No: 196.81 NO / 846.09 sDAI

$2k

Categorical

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Will Denmark agree before 1 July 2025 to make changes to its relationship with Greenland?
Will Denmark agree before 1 July 2025 to make changes to its relationship with Greenland?

Yes 15%

No 85%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 2k DEN_GREEN_Y / 2.61 sDAI
  • No: 525.62 DEN_GREEN_N / 1k sDAI

$2k

Categorical

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Will Science retract “The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” by the end of 2025?
Will Science retract “The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” by the end of 2025?

Yes 26.6%

No 72.3%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 1k COVIDRETYES / 81.24 sDAI
  • No: 723.23 COVIDRETNO / 458.09 sDAI

$2k

Categorical

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How many people will be deported (removals, returns & expulsions) from the United States during 2025? [Individuals]
How many people will be deported (removals, returns & expulsions) from the United States during 2025? [Individuals]

Estimate

1,154,000

0

2,000,000

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 204.95 US_DEP25_DO / 68.96 sDAI
  • UP: 1k US_DEP25_UP / 289.89 sDAI

$1k

Scalar

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World War 3: Will any type of nuclear device be used offensively in Q2 2025?
World War 3: Will any type of nuclear device be used offensively in Q2 2025?

Yes 3%

No 97%

Liquidity:

  • Yes: 1k NUKE25Q2YES / 20.50 sDAI
  • No: 700.85 NUKE25Q2NO / 460.60 sDAI

$1k

Categorical

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How many North Atlantic hurricanes in 2025? [Hurricanes]
How many North Atlantic hurricanes in 2025? [Hurricanes]

Estimate

7.928

2

14

Liquidity:

  • DOWN: 430.58 HURRI2025_D / 354.42 sDAI
  • UP: 466.01 HURRI2025_U / 336.51 sDAI

$1k

Scalar

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What changes will Denmark agree to about its relationship with Greenland before 1 July 2025?
What changes will Denmark agree to about its relationship with Greenland before 1 July 2025?

Greenland on a path to independence 0.136

Denmark cedes or sells at least part of Greenland to US 0.009

US receives additional rights 0.025

Liquidity:

  • Greenland on a path to independence: 1k GREEN25IND / 10.00 sDAI
  • Denmark cedes or sells at least part of Greenland to US: 1k GREEN25SELL / 0.01 sDAI
  • US receives additional rights: 1k GREEN25ADDL / 0.00 sDAI
  • Other changes not listed in the market which created this question: 1k GREEN25OTH / 0.00 sDAI
  • No changes agreed to by Denmark: 196.94 GREEN25NONE / 712.33 sDAI

$1k

Multi Categorical

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